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Green Shoots & Flower Buds – House Prices Rise

29.08.09

We have Bloomberg news on in our office, as obviously we like to keep up to date with the latest financial news, (or is it because it is one of only 3 channels we can access? – you decide), but it is very informative. The other day an excited American boomed, “this is not just green shoots we are seeing here, but real flower buds now!”.

It was said with such an air of confidence that you could not help yourself but be carried away on a euphoric wave of good feeling – hell, I almost pledged my allegiance to the American flag, (though I didn’t).

There is indeed however a lot of good news around, but also many guarded warnings and whispers of negativity. The shape of the recession is still not known and even Sir Martin Sorrell has chipped in predicting that it will look like an italicised “L” shape, though not sure if that is a capital L or a little l, I guess capital L.

This week the main news has been around house prices with Nationwide stating prices have risen for the 4th month running, and this has even been trumped by the latest “actual” figures by the Land Registry which show that house prices rose in July by 1.7%, which represents the highest monthly growth in 5 years, since July 2004 to be precise.

This gives an annual drop of 11.7%, with many commentators now suggesting prices may end the year in positive territory, which must be hard to swallow for the prophets of doom who suggested another 20% fall this year!

As we all know however, this still has a long way to run, and once more properties come on the market, especially if rates start to rise as well, and repossessions follow, then we could see a slight fall back by a few percent. Whatever happens, the great house price crash seems to be over and those hoping for a 40% + peak to trough fall will be disappointed again – how many times can they keep predicting this apocalyptic result?

Well done to the Welsh by the way, who experienced the greatest increase – must be something in the water there.

With GDP falling a little less than expected, and surveys on Confidence showing a positive return perhaps we should be feeling more comfortable that a corner has been turned.

Whether the green shoots are flower buds, or these flower buds bloom, is a matter of conjecture and endless speculation. We shall see.

 

 

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Andrew Montlake

Written by Andrew Montlake

Andrew Montlake, better known as Monty, began his journey with an Hons degree in Economics & Politics before starting in the mortgage industry in February 1994. As a main founder of Coreco in 2009, he successfully grew the brand, marketing, and communications, and was made MD in 2019 focussing on the overall vision, strategy, and culture of the company. As Coreco’s media spokesperson, Andrew can often be seen or heard on TV and radio as well as regularly commenting in the national, local, and trade press. He is the author of this acclaimed Mortgage Blog and is well-known for his social media, podcasts, and public speaking. Andrew is now proud to serve as Chairman of the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries, (AMI) as a cheerleader for the Mortgage Industry as a whole and continues to work at the coal face, writing mortgage business and advising clients.

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